Inflection Point Analysis for the 47 Countries with more than 1K Cases (SARS-CoV-2)

Check the highest infected countries for a sign of virus growth completion

20 min readApr 1, 2020

Following our analysis for the theoretical frame that must be used, we continue now on creating graphic plots country per country, starting from the most infected one.

As you will see, the situation is not “one size fits all” for all countries.

There exists countries that have completed their overall cycle and nothing new can be reported now
There are countries which continue to walk towards the completion of their one and only one cycle
Big countries that had reached a condition close to the completion of a first cycle have begun now a second one, although not so deadly like the previous
Many countries that seemed to had completed a cycle, currently they are in the exponential phase of a second cycle without any significant increase in deaths
Other countries that seemed to had won the virus, now suffer from it with exponential increase in both confirmed cases and deaths
Finally some countries are close to complete their second cycle

US

Just exponentially increasing which is a bad sign for the total outcome

Update May-08: Now the situation after UIK point is next Figure:

You don’t say that it is close to completion yet.

Update 2020–09–17:

After middle June a second cycle has begun, less deathly than the first one.

Italy

A sign of hope has been revealed because we see inflection point of the confirmed cases on Mar-25 while for the deaths also exists such a point on Mar-29. It seems that Italy began the downward.

Update May-08: Today we have next picture, always after UIK point:

The bending of the curve is a long-long story here.

Update 2020–09–17:

Although a second cycle in confirmed cases has begun, without any significant change to the number of deaths.

Spain

It seems that inflection points are approximately on Mar-28 for both confirmed and deaths. Good sign, but with a very high cost in lives.

Update May-08:

Again a long journey towards the desired flattening of the sigmoid curve.

Update 2020–09–17:

The second cycle for confirmed cases has essentially duplicated the number of infected people, however the loss curve did not change by the same factor.

China

The first country has completed almost all phases, included that of recovery. They managed to keep deaths in a relatively small level, compared to other western countries.

Update May-08:

The only change was in losses curve because 1290 new deaths were added.

Update 2020–09–17:

Not any remarkable change from last update.

Germany

Although a first inflection points has occurred for confirmed cases on Mar-27 the deaths curve is sharply increasing. Bad sign for the total expected losses in Germany.

Update May-08:

A kind of bending regarding the total confirmed cases, however deaths do not follow the same route.

Update 2020–09–17:

Again we observe a second cycle for confirmed cases without a relevant one in deaths.

France

Very bad picture! Neither confirmed nor deaths seem to reach an inflection point yet. Things are going to worsen there.

Update May-08:

Better view than end of March, however the curve of recovered does not follow the confirmed cases one.

Update 2020–09–17:

Exactly as in Spain: double confirmed cases with no significant effect in deaths.

Iran

Deaths have shown an inflection around Mar-23, however confirmed cases continue to increase. Gray status.

Update May-08:

It is similar to Italy, a long journey towards the end, however with not so many losses like Italy.

Update 2020–09–17:

Here there exist clearly two cycles, unfortunately they refer to both confirmed cases and deaths.

United Kingdom

Very bad condition! Confirmed & deaths are increasing exponentially, so the final outcome is expected very high.

Update May-08:

Bad outlook again, since curves do not seem to be flattened yet.

Update 2020–09–17:

A slightly modification of the France-Spain condition: second cycle in confirmed cases did not double the total infected and did not alter the loss curve.

Where did the alarm of Neil Ferguson for 510K losses go?

Switzerland

Although confirmed cases reached an inflection on Mar-24, death curve is still climbing. Bad sign for the expected losses in Switzerland.

Update May-08:

Good handling, all three sigmoids tend to be flattened!

Update 2020–09–17:

The second cycle was not so deadly as the first one.

Turkey

Very difficult case. Confirmed and deaths increase highly exponentially and that is not a good sign.

Update May-08:

A sign of beginning the completion phase is visible here.

Update 2020–09–17:

Similar to Iran, it seems that second cycle is deadly too like the first one.

Belgium

Inflection point for confirmed cases on Mar-29. Needs more study because it lies at the tail of the curve.

Update May-08:

Again it seems they have entered the final ending phase.

Update 2020–09–17:

Like United Kingdom, more infected, less deaths for the second cycle.

Netherlands

An inflection for the confirmed cases on Mar-28, however, since it is in the tail of the time curve, needs further monitor next days.

Update May-08:

Better view, both curves tend to be horizontal.

Update 2020–09–17:

Doubling infected without any effect for total losses, after the second cycle begin.

Austria

Again the inflection found on Mar-27 does not guarantee the begin of completion. Further monitor is needed.

Update May-08:

Excellent view! Cycle completed, country can open again.

Update 2020–09–17:

Infected people have doubled, however deaths have increased only a little for the second cycle.

South Korea

Another good sign for them: the inflection point for deaths seems to rise on Mar-27. Very good picture.

Update May-08:

Curve of deaths has also completed its cycle.

Update 2020–09–17:

After middle of August situation seems not under control because both confirmed cases and deaths increase sharply…

Canada

Not so bad as US, but difficult too: no inflection point has been found at all. Exponential Growth is present here.

Update May-08:

It is expected a long journey for the completion here.

Update 2020–09–17:

The recovered curve is weird, deaths do not follow the increase of confirmed cases now.

Portugal

Confirmed cases increase exponentially. An inflection point on Mar-29 for deaths does not guarantee anything. We need more days to infer about.

Update May-08:

It seems to get towards the end, but slowly.

Update 2020–09–17:

Not any new observation, the deaths curve is less increasing than the relevant for confirmed cases.

Brazil

Not so good picture: confirmed and deaths are increasing exponentially. Bad sign for the expected final outcome.

Update May-08:

Again no inflection points, so exponential phase is still present there, bad sign again for the expected losses.

Update 2020–09–17:

One of the worst curves all around the World:

Confirmed cases and losses continue to increase
There is no inflection point for losses
The expected total losses will exceed the double ,of the currently reported number

Israel

There is a hopeful index on Mar-27 for both confirmed and deaths curves, however it is still early to infer about. More time is needed for a safe conclusion …

Update May-08:

Better view, curves seem to become horizontal, however not in a fast way.

Update 2020–09–17:

Israel seems to begin a cycle after end of May and now is still in the exponential phase.

It is an example of how difficult is to handle the virus: when you feel that you have controlled it, then a new cycle can emerge…

Norway

Confirmed cases seem to have an inflection point on Mar-27, but deaths not yet.

Update May-08:

It seems that the first cycle is over!

Update 2020–09–17:

Only new confirmed cases, not significant many new deaths here.

Australia

Again there are good signs on Mar-27, however due to the South Hemisphere climate we must wait .

Update May-08:

First cycle has been completed here.

Update 2020–09–17:

It seems like COVID-19 begun its cycle after end of June, since both confirmed and deaths curves present a UIK point there.

Very bad situation, deaths increase analogously to confirmed cases, however the latter seems to have completed a second sigmoid curve. Lets hope that total losses curve will compete its cycle soon.

Sweden

All curves increase exponentially there. Not a good sign.

Update May-08:

Curves are not expected to be horizontal soon.

Update 2020–09–17:

The Sweden experiment: the country without a lockdown.

Here the confirmed cases show the existence of a second cycle, although not clearly distinguished from the first one.

However the deaths curve was not affected and continues its flattening route.

The expected deaths seem to be the double of the relevant inflection point, thus next paper has a confirmation:

A Novel Approach for Estimating the Final Outcome of Global Diseases Like COVID-19

The existence of a universal law which maps the bell curve of daily cases to a sigmoid curve for cumulative ones is…

www.medrxiv.org

Czechia

Again everything increases exponentially. Bad sign.

Update May-08:

The first cycle is close to its completion.

Update 2020–09–17:

After middle June the second cycle has multiplied the infected persons by a factor of ~4, however cumulative losses have increased only about 33%.

Ireland

Same pattern here: everything is getting up!

Update May-08:

Final phase seems to have begun there.

Update 2020–09–17:

A second cycle after end of June, without significant increase in losses.

Denmark

A hopeful sign for the number of deaths on Mar-28, however it is in the tail of the curve. It needs more time to infer about .

Update May-08:

The bending is not so fast as it would be probably desired here, however numbers are small, good sign!

Update 2020–09–17:

Again we observe a second cycle after end of June, but without the deaths of the first one.

Malaysia

Inflection points for both confirmed (Mar-26) and deaths (Mar-29) has been found. They are rather good signs for them.

Update May-08:

The first cycle has been completed!

Update 2020–09–17:

Not any significant change, just a minor increase for the number of confirmed cases.

Chile

It is a Southern Hemisphere country, so we must be cautious if the inflection on Mar-28 mean something yet.

Update May-08:

Confirmed cases continue to increase exponentially there.

Update 2020–09–17:

Although inflection points have been identified approximately at the middle of July, the evolution is far away from a completion. The estimated finals will be at least the doubles of the relevant inflection points.

Russia

Absolutely exponential growth! Very bad sign for that big country.

Update May-08:

Unfortunately confirmed cases still increase exponentially in Russia.

Update 2020–09–17:

An inflection point has been identified only for the number of confirmed cases, thus we are expecting at least its double value to be an estimation for the final inflected people.

But the curve of losses does not present any inflection and that is a bad sign for the estimation of the overall expected deaths. They could probably exceed the double of the current losses, ie they may be more than 40K.

Poland

Exponential growth again, the inflection on Mar-29 is not safe (end of curve tail). Monitor is needed.

Update May-08:

Not big numbers, but not yet a completion, it is a slow process.

Update 2020–09–17:

There exist an acceleration after August in both confirmed cases and deaths.

Romania

Again an exponential growth is present and the inflection found on Mar-29 is not for safe.

Update May-08:

A slowly process, similar to Italy and other countries, however with much less losses.

Update 2020–09–17:

After end of June it clearly opened a new and worse second cycle and both confirmed cases and deaths have over-doubled after then. Bad news…

Ecuador

Curves are climbing up there. More time is needed.

Update May-08:

Bad data, cumulative curve cannot decrease and cannot present such high jumps! More time needed.

Update 2020–09–17:

Statistics seem to be a little bit bizarre her, with high steps…

However deaths have doubled during the second cycle.

Luxembourg

Inflection points are not for a safe conclusion yet.

Update May-08:

First cycle has been completed here. Good job, case closed!

Update 2020–09–17:

Case opened again after the beginning of Summer. Confirmed cases have doubled, deaths have slightly increased.

Philippines

Another one exponential growth here.

Update May-08:

Small numbers but not yet a completed cycle!

Update 2020–09–17:

Summer was the beginning of the second cycle which is more infectious and deadly than the first one. Confirmed cases and deaths are multiplied by ~ 5.

Japan

Good news from Japan! Not many cases and inflection points exist for all curves.

Update May-08:

Finally the condition was out of control, curves seem to bend horizontally now.

Update 2020–09–17:

Summer relaxation probably was the reason for beginning a second cycle there. Confirmed cases have been multiplied by ~ 4, deaths by ~ 2.

Pakistan

Bad expected evolution since confirmed and deaths increase both exponentially there.

Update May-08:

Confirmed cases and deaths continue to increase exponentially here.

Update 2020–09–17:

Unfortunately the date of our last inspection seems to be the UIK point of the overall curve now. However inflection points have been identified and the process tends to a completion soon.

Thailand

Not many cases and two inflection points exist. A rather good case.

Update May-08:

Case closed! Everything has completed the first cycle here.

Update 2020–09–17:

Not any significant change after May, just a slight increase in cases and deaths.

Saudi Arabia

A rather exponential growth also there. We need more time to infer.

Update May-08:

Both confirmed cases and deaths continue to increase exponentially here.

Update 2020–09–17:

Good news: confirmed cases have shown an inflection point tend to complete their sigmoid.

Bad news: deaths continue to ,increase without inflection point.

Indonesia

Inflection points around Mar-27 exist for all curves.

Update May-08:

Slow process, not close to maximum yet.

Update 2020–09–17:

Very bad outlook: all curves are still in the exponential phase, thus expected final outcomes will be more than the doubles of the currently reported numbers.

Finland

A clear exponential growth there!

Update May-08:

A slowly process, it needs more time for a safe conclusion.

Update 2020–09–17:

A very slow increase after middle of July, no something extremely worrying…

India

Again exponential growth. Lets hope that lockdown will help to keep cases and deaths low.

Update May-08:

Given the large size of this country, observed number cannot be considered as large, however process is far from reaching its maximum point yet.

Update 2020–09–17:

Unfortunately India is still in the exponential phase for all curves of interest which means that the expected outcome will be more than the double of the currently reported numbers. Bad news…

South Africa

A rather exponential curve for deaths.

Update May-08:

Exponential phase continues and is far before its maximum point.

Update 2020–09–17:

The exponential phase begun with the winter start, there exists an inflection point for all curves, however deaths continue to increase sharply than infected people.

Greece

Too early to infer about. The inflection points found at the end of the curves are not for safe. We need more time to monitor for a safer conclusion.

Update May-08:

Confirmed cases and deaths curves have become horizontal, a sign of cycle completion!

Update 2020–09–17:

There exist not a reliable data set for recovered cases, thus the relevant curve is of no interest here.

After middle of July a second cycle has clearly begun, which has approximately tripled the confirmed cases and has increased the deaths by a percentage of ~ 70%.

Since the overall cumulative confirmed cases curve shows a UIK point at the end of July, that is a sign of the beginning of new and intensive second cycle.

Panama

Just exponential growth again.

Update May-08:

Confirmed cases and deaths continue to increase but without big numbers.

Update 2020–09–17:

Inflection points have been identified, however the overall process does not seem to slow down fast.

Iceland

Confirmed cases show a clear inflection point on Mar-24. Good sign!

Update May-08:

Curves have completed their current cycle. Case closed!

Update 2020–09–17:

A slight increase in confirmed cases last month without any further consequences.

Dominican Republic

A typical exponential growth for both confirmed and deaths curves.

Update May-08:

A kind of increase but with small numbers.

Update 2020–09–17:

After the beginning of June we observe an exponential phase without any inflection point for the deaths curves.

Mexico

Another exponentially increasing curve, however it is a country with the mega city of Mexico, so caution is needed there.

Update May-08:

Unfortunately both confirmed and deaths continue to increase exponentially there.

Update 2020–09–17:

Middle May is the beginning of the exponential phase, while an inflection point is identified at middle August (confirmed cases). Expected final outcomes: more than 2 times the values of the presented inflection points.